Links: Early Life, Critical Minerals, Net Zero Emissions

Some interesting readings over the past couple of weeks.

1) In a Fierce Desert, Microbe ‘Crusts’ Show How Life Tamed the Land. Zack Savitsky describes a fascinating research program underway to study microbial life in the fierce Atacama Desert in Chile. These organic communities are called 'grit crust'. They coat pebbles and large sand grains on the desert floor. A closer examination has showed that they are composed of hundreds of species of cyanobacteria, algae, fungi, along with lichen combinations. These microbes play an important role in the biogeochemical fixation and cycling of elements and over millennia break down rock and enrich the soil in nutrients. They also give scientists a glimpse on how life may have first colonized land, perhaps as early as the Archean. 

2) Digging into India’s critical minerals dash. Recently, the Indian Ministry of Mines released the Critical Minerals for India report. India has also approved commercial mining for minerals containing the following elements —lithium, beryllium, titanium, niobium, tantalum and zirconium. These elements are raw materials for magnets used in wind turbines and EV motors. M Rajshekhar writes about the geological distribution of these elements and global supply chains, pointing out the challenges India faces in procuring a reliable supply of these materials necessary for its energy transition away from fossil fuels. 

3) Explainer: Will global warming ‘stop’ as soon as net-zero emissions are reached? Even if we stop emitting CO2 today, we are locked into hundreds of years of warming because of past emissions. I too have uttered these words, but it turns out that I, and many others, have been conflating two separate scenarios: constant concentrations versus zero emissions. Zeke Hausfather clarifies what these two different situations mean and how they will differently impact CO2 levels and future warming. 

Net zero CO2 scenario will very quickly stabilize temperatures or even slightly cool the earth, but that will also depend on emissions of  other confounding variables like aerosols and other greenhouse gases. Aerosols by blocking sun's energy have a cooling effect. On the other hand, achieving net zero too far in the future might still result in warming due to the feedback effects of other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide. Good explainer!

Olivia Judson On Energy Expansions Of Evolution

Nature Ecology and Evolution has published a fine perspective by evolutionary biologist Olivia Judson on energy availability and evolutionary transitions on earth -

" The history of the life–Earth system can be divided into five ‘energetic’ epochs, each featuring the evolution of life forms that can exploit a new source of energy. These sources are: geochemical energy, sunlight, oxygen, flesh and fire. The first two were present at the start, but oxygen, flesh and fire are all consequences of evolutionary events. Since no category of energy source has disappeared, this has, over time, resulted in an expanding realm of the sources of energy available to living organisms and a concomitant increase in the diversity and complexity of ecosystems. These energy expansions have also mediated the transformation of key aspects of the planetary environment, which have in turn mediated the future course of evolutionary change.Using energy as a lens thus illuminates patterns in the entwined histories of life and Earth, and may also provide a framework for considering the potential trajectories of life–planet systems elsewhere."

Coincidentally, I just finished reading Nick Lane's book The Vital Question, which covers the first three sources of energy discussed in this article. Nick Lane writes about energy currencies of the cell and the constraints it places on the early evolution of life on earth. Why don't bacteria become morphologically larger and more complex?... because there are intrinsic constraints on the energy available for ATP synthesis.  You'll have to read Nick Lane's book for a detailed account but Olivia Judson's essay mentions this and more. The other two, animals and fire, encompass the evolution of complex multicellular life and their impact on evolutionary arms races and ecosystem changes.

..and what about life on other planets?..

"As this is the only life–planet system we currently know of, it is impossible to know how representative it is of life–planet systems in general. But if the development of other life–planet systems requires a similar series of energy expansions, the framework presented here suggests a way to anticipate the paths that such systems might take. For instance, if a planet has only geochemical energy— perhaps because it is far from its star, or because it is a nomad and has no star at all—any life present may have “a limited future in terms of the heights it could achieve”. Or suppose a planet is unable to accumulate oxygen. This could happen if living organisms never evolve a way of splitting water to produce the gas in the first place, but even if they do, the planet itself may have characteristics that prevent oxygen from ever building up. Without oxygen, the geological, ecological and evolutionary potential of a life–planet system is likely to be constrained, even if life forms analogous to eukaryotes in their energy-harnessing power (Box 2) were to evolve. Conversely, some planets might be able to accumulate new forms of energy, and life forms able to take advantage of them, much fasterthan Earth has."

Open Access.

Health Impact Study Of India Coal Power Plants

Do check out this New York Times interview with Dr. Sarath Guttikunda on the impact of India's coal power plants on health and environment. Dr. Guttikunda founded Urban Emissions, an air pollution research firm based in New Delhi and is also affiliate associate research professor at the Desert Research Institute, the environmental research arm of the Nevada System of Higher Education. He blogs at Urban Emissions.

Why are such studies important?

From the interview:

From epidemiological studies and the recent Global Burden of Disease assessments, it is evident that outdoor air pollution is one of the key sources of disease and death in India.

In order for the public to demand action on controlling the air pollution, we feel that the information is the key element. We need to know the status of air pollution and contributions from various sources like transport, power plants, industries, household fuels, and others.

We feel that this study is important on two fronts. First, it presents data on emissions, concentrations and health impacts of the coal power sector. While this may seem basic, it is unfortunate that this sort of information has not been published previously and we hope that it presents policy makers with evidence as to air pollution and health impacts of the sector. Second, it shows that despite the air pollution it causes, there are minimal regulations in place to address the air pollution impacts.

If the study convinces policy makers of the need to put in place stringent standards and enforce them – then it may be a start to a broader conversation on our energy needs and the environmental and health costs of supplying them.

111 coal plants currently meeting about 60% of our electricity needs, but around 455 new ones planned according to the World Resources Institute.  Dr. Guttikunda says that with so many new plants a mere tightening of emission standards may not be sufficient to negate the health impacts of these plants. An alternate cleaner energy source needs to be available in really large amounts to avoid building so many new coal plants.

Nuclear power.... natural gas... solar... wind..?  There will be no silver bullet solution to India's energy needs.  We'll have to end up using an energy mix. That will include coal for several decades at least.

India Still Not Serious About Environmental Impact Assessment

Last year I compiled comments made by the then new Minister of Environment and Forest (MoEF) Ms. Jayanthi Natarajan. Here is the list from an article that appeared in The Hindu (emphasis mine):

....Jayanthi Natarajan has assured the corporate world that steps will be taken for promoting growth and “one window” fast clearances for big projects.

at the same time, said she would “do everything” to protect the environment. ...

She said that there will not be “any change” once clearance is given to a project....

Asked whether she could assure speedy clearances for such projects, Ms. Natarajan said she will do so but environment should be protected at “all cost” in all its “dimensions.”  

Dismissing the perception that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh appointed her as a result of a compromise to appease corporate India, Ms. Natarajan said, “My actions will show that there can be no compromise on either issue that I will always act for the best welfare of the country.

That these supreme examples of fence sitting and contradictions is not just a list to chuckle at but reflects how the MoEF actually takes on the task of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of developmental projects is painfully brought out by Parineeta Dandekar in an InfoChangeIndia article on the ongoing efforts to dam the Chenab river in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir.

From the article: 

While other rivers like the Sutlej, Beas and Ravi, as well as smaller streams and tributaries in Himachal have been almost completely dammed, the Chenab is the last comparatively free-flowing healthy river in the state.

As things stand now, if all projects are implemented, less than 10% of the river will be seen flowing at all. Dams are being constructed bumper-to-bumper in a very tight sequence, where water from one hydro project meets not the river but the reservoir of the next hydro project in line. This conversion of a living river into a series of puddles, alternating with dry stretches and bypassed by tunnels, will have a profound impact on the ecology, biodiversity, hydrology, sociology and water availability of the region.

And the impunity with which even the most basic norms of a fair and transparent EIA process are being seemingly violated:

The MoEF sanctioned TORs for cumulative impact assessments of the Chenab in February 2012. Surprisingly, this critical task has been entrusted to the Directorate of Energy, Government of Himachal Pradesh. Can there be any agency with greater conflict of interest than the Directorate of Energy for this study? Can we expect this department to conduct the study in an unbiased manner? Even as the directorate put out a request for proposals for contractors to carry out the study, it did not mention that the consultant had to be an independent agency with a credible track record, as specifically instructed by the EAC.

The MoEF seems to have meekly accepted the Himachal Pradesh chief minister's demand for delinking environmental clearances from cumulative impact assessment studies, without any questions asked. Indeed, the EAC and MoEF have been according clearances and TORs to projects on the Chenab with great efficiency....

and this self defeating exercise:

In rare cases where consultants have showed courage and integrity by recommending that certain projects be dropped, their reports have been ridiculed and 'saviour' committees have been appointed to look into the reports again to make 'all ills go away', like the B K Chaturvedi Committee which is now looking at the WII study which recommended dropping 24 projects planned in the upper Ganga. The MoEF decided to dump the recommendation of the Teesta cumulative impact study when it stated that no projects should be built upstream of the Chungthang.

A case where political compulsions are going too far... and here is another study (press release) on the likely impact on ecology and social disruptions due to this frenzy of dam building activity in the Himalayas.

Some Good Readings About U.S. Oil In Shale Resources

I go over to the Oil Drum often to catch up on news and analysis on oil and natural gas. A few that caught my eye over the holiday period:

1) Does the U.S. Really Have More Oil than Saudi Arabia? - some fundamentals about the difference between shale oil and tight oil, and resources and reserves cleared up.

2) Bill O'Reilly Is Misinforming Americans About Oil Supplies - U.S oil exports and imports and the link to gasoline prices and jobs.

3) Shale Oil: The Latest Insights -  Development of "shale oil" resources and impacts on the shale gas production.

4) Gas Boom Goes Bust: On the future of the shale gas industry.

The Oil Drum has generally been giving a more cautious and conservative long term perspectives on the recent elation over shale gas and new discoveries of "shale oil".

ExxonMobil Were Playing Both Ways On Global Warming All Along

Fresh Air has an absolutely fascinating interview with journalist Steve Coll who has written a new book on ExxonMobil.

For many years ExxonMobil engaged in a campaign to downplay the human role in global warming and tried to discredit the science of recent climate change.

And yet:

GROSS: Just one more thing about climate change. During the period when ExxonMobil was trying to defeat global warming science, at the same time scientists within Exxon were trying to figure out, well, if the planet is warming, how can we profit from that? So they work in both fronts at the same time.

COLL: Well, that's right. They're a science-based organization. They employ a lot of geologists, and the mission of those geologists is to understand the Earth's structure and how changes in temperatures, geology, technology, could intersect to create opportunities to find oil. And as the book reports, geologists in some of their most important kind of discovery departments were looking at how warming might unlock oil reserves and positioning ExxonMobil with advice about how to think about that.

GROSS: So in other words, Exxon wanted to defeat global science because that says that fossil fuels, burning fossil fuels is warming the climate and creating weather changes and climate change, and that would mean problems for Exxon because it's the fossil fuel industry.

But at the same time, its own scientists were saying, well, it looks like the Earth is warming, so let's see what new oil reserves that might open up to us.

Those new reserves that might open up were under the Arctic sea bed, made more accessible as increased summer melting of the Arctic sea ice makes it easier to explore and eventually exploit those resources.

There are a lot more interesting tidbits in this long interview including ExxonMobil's tussle with the U.S. government over human rights issues in oil rich countries like Chad and the company's increasing interest in unconventional oil and gas resources.

Estimating Coal Bed Methane Volume And Some Other Energy News

Via Geology.com I came across this short tutorial on estimating available coal bed methane. Gas is adsorbed in the micro-pores within the coal with smaller amounts available as free gas in fractures. The gas content available is estimated using a Langmuir isotherm:

Source: Baker Hughes Reservoir Blog

Short but effective presentation I thought.

In other energy news, India is ready to open up bidding for exploration of shale gas in six basins, namely Cambay, Assam-Arakan, Gondawana, KG onshore, Cauvery onshore and the Indo Gangetic basin by end of 2013. Early estimates suggest that four of these basins, Cambay, KG onshore, Cauvery and part of the Gondwana (Damodar valley basin) contain up to 63 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas. These numbers are sure to be modified as these and other basins are probed in more detail.

Finally, Amol Sharma at India Real Time takes a closer look at "Coalgate", a controversy over the Indian government allocating coal mining blocks to companies instead of auctioning them in an open bidding process. The loss to the exchequer according to the Comptroller and Auditor General calculation is about $200 billion.

What all the media hype though has missed is that the report has a lot to say about the shortfall in coal production:

The lion’s share of the report doesn’t deal with any of the issues above that have caused such an uproar, but rather India’s coal production shortfall. There’s plenty of blame for Coal India, which produces 81% of the coal in the country and is a lifeline for power generation firms. Between March 2008 and March 2011, Coal India failed to supply 54 million tons of coal it had promised companies. The report also asks why the private companies that have been “captive mines” – the so-called windfall gainers – have been so slow to get going with production. It says only 28 captive coal blocks are producing out of 194 allocated by the government. It is fair to ask why this is the case. Are there delays in getting government clearances, or are companies being inefficient?

Indian potential coal reserves are about 350 billion tons, making it the fourth largest reserves in the world, but according to coal market consultants Wood McKenzie, the future marketable reserve i.e. marketable production by 2030 is just 18 billion tons. That estimate might reflect a complex mix of conditions such as a lack of confidence in India sorting out issues related to regulatory clearances and land acquisition problems along with shortage in skilled manpower and advanced technology.  India has to import coal to meet shortfalls in domestic supply.

The Economic Times reports that coal imports could increase substantially in the future from 80 million tons per year in 2011 to 400 million tons per year by 2030, especially if domestic prices are raised to be on par with international prices.  Australia and Indonesia are major suppliers of coal to India.

World Water Day: Water Water Everywhere ...And Shale Gas

Its World Water Day.

Near my house a big site is being developed. The builder excavated a huge pit about 40-50 feet deep for underground parking only to find he had hit a prolific aquifer.

My rough calculations suggest that the hole contains on the order of 15 -20 million liters of water. That sounds a lot but I was struggling to give it a context. Then this morning I read an article on Fracking, Methane and Food Security. Fracking or hydraulic fracturing is the process of injecting shale rock with a mixture of water, sand and chemicals to pry open the shale and release the tightly bound natural gas.

Here is what the article says about the amount of water used by each well being fracked -

 “Every time a gas well is fracked, 4 to 9 million gallons of water are injected into the ground. A single well can be fracked up to 12 separate times, adding up to over 100 million gallons of freshwater used in the lifetime of a well.” (waterdefense.org)

4-9 million gallons injected every time a gas well is fracked. That's on the order of 20 odd million liters of water, as much as is contained in that hole near my house.

My neighborhood is not depending on groundwater right now, but may have to in the not so distant future. Shale gas though will be extracted in the future from wells drilled in rural India, which depends a lot on groundwater. Farmers use it for drinking purposes as well as irrigating their fields. The gas will be in sedimentary formations a couple of kilometers below the surface, but the water for fracking will be taken from much shallower aquifers that the farmers rely on for their livelihood.

Each time a gas well is fracked, 20 million liters of water will have to be diverted from aquifers underlying their fields for getting the natural gas out. Over the lifetime of a well over 400 million liters of water may be consumed by one well and in an area few tens of sq km, there may be scores of such shale gas wells.

Its early days in our goal to exploit shale gas from various Indian sedimentary basins. Let us quantitatively assess the state of our aquifers besides exploring for shale gas. Let's educate our farmers on how much water shale gas drilling is likely to use up. The residents of central Pune can afford to pump all of 20 odd million liters of groundwater away and still see water gushing out of their taps.

Farmers in the dusty hinterlands may not afford that luxury.

Natural Gas: Expectations Fulfilled?

Couple of articles on the expectations surrounding natural gas -

Over at the Barrel, John Kingston points to an article by Mriganka Jaipuriyar on the delays and production problems at India's giant natural gas field KG-D6 in the east coast Krishna Godavari basin.

Across the continents, Ian Urbina of the New York Times dives into industry memos and internal emails expressing skepticism about the potential of shale gas in the U.S to remain a vast and profitable source of energy in the future. 

India Basin-Wise Shale Gas Estimates

Sometime back I had posted a graphic of Indian sedimentary basins and the potential of shale gas from these basins. Currently India has reserves of about 38 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of conventional natural gas i.e. gas stored in pore spaces of coarser permeable sedimentary rocks like sandstones.

I had mentioned that shale gas i.e. natural gas trapped in very fine grained, impermeable shales might add substantially to the existing conventional natural gas reserves. I did not have any numbers to put out at that time.

Now the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) has come out with a report (51 mb) on global shale gas potential that includes some Indian sedimentary basins as well. The report has been prepared for the EIA by Advanced Resources International, a company based in Virginia, U.S.

About 70 shale formations from 48 basins in 32 countries were studied. Here is the global summary in terms of shale gas potential. The report only partially estimates shale gas resources since it excludes Russia and the Middle East. It also excludes offshore basins and many other onshore basins for which data is not available:

Although the shale gas resource estimates will likely change over time as additional information becomes available, the report shows that the international shale gas resource base is vast. The initial estimate of technically recoverable shale gas resources in the 32 countries examined is 5,760 trillion, cubic feet, as shown in Table 1. Adding the U.S. estimate of the shale gas technically recoverable resources of 862 trillion cubic feet results in a total shale resource base estimate of 6,622 trillion cubic feet for the United States and the other 32 countries assessed. To put this shale gas resource estimate in some perspective, world proven reserves of natural gas as of January 1, 2010 are about 6,609 trillion cubic feet, and world technically recoverable gas resources are roughly 16,000 trillion cubic feet, largely excluding shale gas. Thus, adding the identified shale gas resources to other gas resources increases total world technically recoverable gas resources by over 40 percent to 22,600 trillion cubic feet.

Global consumption of natural gas was estimated to be about 100 Tcf in 2009 and is projected to increase to about 156 Tcf by 2035.

Do read the summary and the report (51 mb) to get an idea about the methodology for estimating shale gas resources. 

For India, data adequate enough to generate estimates of shale gas was available from 4 sedimentary basins. These were from the Cambay Basin, the Krishna Godavari Basin, the Cauvery Basin and the Damodar Valley Basin. These basins are estimated to contain about 63 Tcf of recoverable shale gas.

There are many other sedimentary basins which remain relatively unexplored for their shale gas potential.

Image below shows the assessed sedimentary basins along with other basins which are though to contain shale gas but for which adequate data is not yet available.

Below is a basin-wise breakdown of the shale gas estimates along with graphics of the basin structure and prospective blocks within the basins.

Cambay Basin:

This is an elongate intra-cratonic rift basin of late Cretaceous-Cenozoic age situated in western Indian state of Gujarat. The formation of interest is the Palaeocene-Eocene Cambay black shale. Technically recoverable shale gas is estimated to be about 20 Tcf.

Krishna Godavari Basin:

A Late Permian to Tertiary age basin in eastern India consisting of a series of horst and graben. The prospective formation is the Permian age Kommugudem shale. Technically recoverable resources are estimated to be about 27 Tcf.

Cauvery Basin:

The Cretaceous-Cenozoic Cauvery basin in south eastern India is another basin with horst and graben structures and prospective shales. The formations of interest are the early Cretaceous Andimadam Formation and the Sattapadi shale. Technically recoverable resources are about 9 Tcf.

Damodar Valley Basin:

This basin is part of the "Gondwana" basins of India characterized by their mostly non-marine sedimentary fill and narrow graben structures. Although filled with mostly Late Permian to Triassic terrestrial sediment, there is a significant thickness of a marine shale known as the Barren measures, so called as it is barren of coal. The technically recoverable resources from this shale are estimated to be 7 Tcf.

Below is a table summarizing the geological and shale gas attributes of the basins of interest.

As the report makes clear, these are initial estimates (not proven reserves) based on available data on shale formations from basins that already have seen substantial exploration for oil and conventional natural gas. As more focused exploration for shale gas continues from these basins and as more basins are explored these estimates of shale gas resources will likely change.

Update [ May 17 ]: [ Just a quick clarification on terminology. In the table above three estimates of gas are given. GIP is Gas in Place and it refers to the total gas content of the shale formation as estimated from geological attributes. Risked GIP is a fraction of GIP after applying certain success factors i.e. using information available of the productivity of the formation and other factors that might limit its development. Finally, Risked Recoverable is the fraction of Risked GIP that can be technically recovered. That is the amount - 63 Tcf- I have used in this post.

There are reports in the media claiming for example that shale gas in India has been estimated to be about 600 - 2000 Tcf. These refer to Gas in Place estimates and are comparable to the GIP estimates in the EIA report. They are sometimes improperly referred to as reserves (amount of resource that can be exploited economically at any given time). These large amounts mentioned in some media reports are not proven reserves but an estimate of the total gas content stored in the formation. Out of that only a fraction will be technically recoverable.]

India produced about 1.4 Tcf in 2009 and consumed about 1.8 Tcf.  These shale gas resources as they are realized will add significantly to India's hydrocarbon reserves.

Some broad issues to think about:

1) Will a shale gas policy allowing for exploration and exploitation be put in place quickly?

2) Will concerns about leakage of fracking fluids and methane into groundwater be addressed thoroughly and transparently.

3) Besides contamination of groundwater, there is also a concern of water usage. Wells drilled into shale require large amounts of water to be pumped in during the process of fracking i.e hydraulic fracturing of the rock.  How will conflicts of water use with farmers and affected communities be resolved?

Update Jan 5 2012: In a recent assessment (USGS Fact Sheet India Shale Gas 2011) of the Cambay, Krishna Godavari and Cauvery provinces of India, the United States Geological Survey has downgraded shale gas resources from 63 tcf estimated by the Energy Information Agency to 6.1 tcf. Downgrading shale gas resource estimates is not unique to India. Revisions are going on all over the world and is probably due to the observation that production from shale gas wells falls significantly after the first year or so of extraction. So their performance over the long term may not be able to match up the initial surge.  For example, the prolific Marcellus Shale from eastern U.S initially estimated to contain 410 tcf of gas again estimated by the EIA has been downgraded to contain about 84 tcf of technically recoverable gas by the USGS.

The India revision is analogue data and was developed using estimates of ultimate well recovery and success ratios from various U.S. data. This figure might itself be open for revision as more focused exploration is undertaken in these various basins.

A Long View Of The Age Of Oil

I took this from Ursula Goodenough's post on NPR's Cosmos and Culture blog.

Source: Steve Mayfield

Indian Public Pick Out Future Energy Winner

One hopes green energy will increasingly contribute to India's energy pie.. but there is no denying which energy source the Indian public and industry place their confidence in..

Coal India IPO oversubscribed 15 times

Carbon sequestration I realize is expensive and not demonstrated on a large scale but maybe we should be giving some space to this technology in our conversations about reducing our carbon footprint.