I've noticed an increase in traffic on my blog. Search phrases are pointing to some old posts I wrote about astrology and earthquakes. Here are a couple of examples:
http://www.google.com/search?q=astrology%20prediction%20earthquake&sourceid=opera&num=0&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&channel=suggest
http://nz.search.yahoo.com/search?fr=yfp-t-501-s&p=mr%20moon%20earthquake%20predictions&ei=UTF-8
Regarding the Christchurch earthquake, Chris at Highly Allocthonous has a post explaining the cause of the earthquake in terms of the regional tectonic set up and the forces involved. And see this USGS summary of the earthquake.
As for the astrologers .. here is my experience with one of them..
Was September 08 Earthquake Month?
Astrologers claim high success rates in their "predictions" but you have to examine their methods - the ones I have encountered don't give location information nor do they give a geological hypothesis in terms of the setting and stresses involved just why an earthquake is likely at a given location. Simply saying an earthquake is going to take place on a particular date or within a time interval does not count as a prediction because the frequency of big earthquakes on earth is quite high - 10-11 earthquakes of 6-7 magnitude occur every month, 3 -4 earthquakes of 5+ magnitude occur every day and more than 20 earthquakes of 4+ magnitude occur every day somewhere on earth.
Without a location and a geological justification there is no way to validate the claim. Astrologers can point to any one of the many earthquakes that shake the earth everyday as the one they "predicted".
http://www.google.com/search?q=astrology%20prediction%20earthquake&sourceid=opera&num=0&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&channel=suggest
http://nz.search.yahoo.com/search?fr=yfp-t-501-s&p=mr%20moon%20earthquake%20predictions&ei=UTF-8
Regarding the Christchurch earthquake, Chris at Highly Allocthonous has a post explaining the cause of the earthquake in terms of the regional tectonic set up and the forces involved. And see this USGS summary of the earthquake.
As for the astrologers .. here is my experience with one of them..
Was September 08 Earthquake Month?
Astrologers claim high success rates in their "predictions" but you have to examine their methods - the ones I have encountered don't give location information nor do they give a geological hypothesis in terms of the setting and stresses involved just why an earthquake is likely at a given location. Simply saying an earthquake is going to take place on a particular date or within a time interval does not count as a prediction because the frequency of big earthquakes on earth is quite high - 10-11 earthquakes of 6-7 magnitude occur every month, 3 -4 earthquakes of 5+ magnitude occur every day and more than 20 earthquakes of 4+ magnitude occur every day somewhere on earth.
Without a location and a geological justification there is no way to validate the claim. Astrologers can point to any one of the many earthquakes that shake the earth everyday as the one they "predicted".
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ReplyDelete"Astrologers can point to any one of the many earthquakes that shake the earth everyday as the one they "predicted"."
ReplyDeleteBut astronomer Ken Ring pointed to Canterbury after the September quake stating in six months there would be another major one. On Valentine's day he warned again "Potential earthquake time for the planet between 15th-25th Feb, especially 18th for Christchurch". And here we are, 22nd of February with almost no city left.
It's evidently one of those things that makes you think about the fine line between conincidence and fate. Knowledge is power, and in this type of situation I would rather leave Christchurch and not have needed to rather than stay and wish I had left.
Anon- there would have been plenty of people making "predictions" on the next earthquake in the Canterbury area. Is it surprising that one of them guessed right..
ReplyDeleteAs for Ken Ring and his methods.. take a look here..