Bibek Bhattacharya has written a fine article in liveMint about Himalaya earthquake risk. He describes the geological story fairly accurately and also properly focuses on our woeful preparedness in terms of citizen awareness and in constructing earthquake resilient buildings.
Seismologist Roger Bilham too has been talking and writing about this topic from time to time. He has been quoted in Mr. Bhattacharya's article. There was also an interview with him published in the July 19th edition of Times of India. Apart from reiterating the geologic risk, he says that "Earthquake engineers in South Asia have diligently responded to the need to ensure building codes are implemented".
I have low confidence in this assessment and one that is echoed in Bibek Bhattacharya's article. In India, there is always a wide gap between expert suggestions and proposed guidelines and their ground level implementation over which earthquake engineers have no control. Demonstrations of strong but light weight constructions by various NGOs always remain at a pilot project stage and are not widely realized in the new growth that is taking place. Wherever I have traveled in the Himalaya, especially in Uttarakhand which faces the risk of a magnitude 8 earthquake, I have noticed that mountain towns have become concrete death traps. A congested sea of buildings have mushroomed up willy-nilly with scant regard for safety. The article in liveMint gives one pointed example of this recklessness. The Shimla High Court building is an 11 story structure built on the edge of a hill. Who will regulate the regulators?
The prognosis is grim.
Seismologist Roger Bilham too has been talking and writing about this topic from time to time. He has been quoted in Mr. Bhattacharya's article. There was also an interview with him published in the July 19th edition of Times of India. Apart from reiterating the geologic risk, he says that "Earthquake engineers in South Asia have diligently responded to the need to ensure building codes are implemented".
I have low confidence in this assessment and one that is echoed in Bibek Bhattacharya's article. In India, there is always a wide gap between expert suggestions and proposed guidelines and their ground level implementation over which earthquake engineers have no control. Demonstrations of strong but light weight constructions by various NGOs always remain at a pilot project stage and are not widely realized in the new growth that is taking place. Wherever I have traveled in the Himalaya, especially in Uttarakhand which faces the risk of a magnitude 8 earthquake, I have noticed that mountain towns have become concrete death traps. A congested sea of buildings have mushroomed up willy-nilly with scant regard for safety. The article in liveMint gives one pointed example of this recklessness. The Shimla High Court building is an 11 story structure built on the edge of a hill. Who will regulate the regulators?
The prognosis is grim.
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